The 2000–2012 Global Warming Hiatus More Likely With a Low Climate Sensitivity

The global warming hiatus during the first decade of 21st century has posed a challenge to scientific community, though leading explanation is that it was caused by internal variability overlaying forced trend. Here, we apply Winton-Held two-layer model and show probability observed 2000–2012 period arise from driven white noise larger if climate sensitivity low. This due delayed response oceans cause trend increase faster with rising than does natural variability, decreasing likelihood observing hiatus. results are confirmed latest models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).